"The NHC forecast is more aggressive than the previous one, and brings Dorian to ategory 3 intensity by the end of the period," forecasters said in the 11 a.m. In its forecast discussion, the NHC says the storm will strengthen slowly as it passes the Virgin Islands and will find low wind shear and warm waters once it reaches the western Atlantic, conditions favorable to intensification. On the forecast track, after Dorian passes the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, it will move east of the Turks and Caicos and be near the northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS: The life-threatening difference between categories 1 through 5 Dorian tracker: What models sayĭorian is becoming better organized, NHC forecasters say, with hurricane hunter planes reporting that the storm has developed a partial eyewall. The storm is forecast to continue strengthening during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Hurricane Central Nicholas Tracker: Spaghetti Models, Cone, Satellite and More By meteorologists SeptemSorry, the video player failed to load. Some strengthening is expected Wednesday as Dorian moves near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, where it is expected to drop heavy rainfall, between 4 and 6 inches, and produce flash flooding during the next couple of days. "All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of the United States," the NHC's forecast discussion states.ĭORIAN TRACK: Click here for spaghetti models and the latest as Hurricane Dorian moves toward Florida ET Friday, Dorian was moving west-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, NHC says. That helps us see better where a storm may go,” Assistant Professor of Meteorology Stephen Mullens at the University of Florida told The Miami Herald.Watch Video: Puerto Rico braces for Tropical Storm Dorianĭorian has become a Category 3 hurricane and it's on track to threaten the east coasts of Florida and Georgia as a major storm, according to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory.ĭorian became a hurricane near St. “With ensemble models, you can have upwards of 90 forecasts. Before the National Hurricane Center names or officials track a tropical storm, social media fills with spaghetti models predicting where it might go. However, generally the more models used, the better the forecast. Storm Coverage (Information) Mouse over and click on individual storm symbol(s) for specific TCTrak storm coverage product window. ![]() And even then, they can be wrong.Ī hurricane can follow a likely path, but if it grows into a very large system it can create its own set of circumstances that can change the direction, speed or strength of the storm.Īnd sometimes the data the computer uses creates a scenario that does not include a factor that turns out to be necessary for a correct forecast. While the lines can give you a general idea of the storm’s movement, it is not until later in the process that the lines converge to form a more direct path for a storm. ![]() Again, those lines represent a computer’s idea of a path depending on the factors it is using to track the storm. In fact, if you notice the tracks early after the storm is born, you’ll see the outliers – lines that shoot off from the general cluster of potential forecast paths. This auto-updated graphic shows you the projected path of the center of Tropical Depression 9. ![]() Because they are created in different ways using different pieces of information, they are not necessarily accurate early on in the process. Professionals who track storms urge the amateur storm watcher to use the spaghetti models with a grain of salt. ![]() For instance, a computer model may use water temperature to create a possible path for a storm, and another may use wind patterns to come up with another possible path.Ī forecast is made by combining the different forecasts from a collection (or “ensemble”) of models. The lines represent different paths created using different types of information. Computers use data from satellites, historical tracks, temperature readings, wind patterns and other information to create a likely path for the storm. Each of the colored lines represents one prediction for the path the storm could take.
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